The Off Market - June 26, 24 Edition

Welcome to Off Market by Goliath Data

The insider's guide to off-market properties.

If you’re new here and wondering why you’re receiving this, it’s probably because you interacted with one of our posts on Facebook or Bigger Pockets. If you’ve returned for another edition, welcome back! As a reminder, we break down the latest real estate data, give commentary (and hot takes) on trending topics, and provide resources to help you close more deals. Let’s dive in.

General Update

It's kind of crazy how much can change in a week.

Last Monday we had a handful of customers purchasing qualified leads from us. In just five days, we signed eight more contracts with operators and groups across the country. Why?

It’s simple—most people don’t think it's worth their time to cold call—they are right, it isn’t. It doesn’t make any sense for them to call homeowners who may or may not want to sell. Instead, they should be calling people who have raised their hands and expressed an interest in selling. They should be getting properties under contract, closing deals, and winning listings.

You know, the kinds of activities that make money.

If you’re in a similar boat and want to focus on high-leverage activities while receiving a steady stream of property owners who are looking to sell, we’d love to hear from you. We’re charging a flat rate of $100 per qualified lead, and are ready to get started anytime. Check out some of those leads here.

To that end, we’re flying over to Cairo on Saturday to spin up another call center. Come Monday morning, we’ll have a team of fifty callers smiling and dialing all day, every day.

That is capitalism at work, making money multiply.

Real Estate Data

Highlights

• 30 YR Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 7.06% vs 7.02% last week (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Purchase: +8.62% WoW, -11.95% YoY (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Refinance: +28.37% WoW, +27.78% YoY (source)

Real Estate Commentary

Real estate crash on the horizon? Maybe, but not likely.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about a crash in the real estate markets, with proponents on both sides of the argument. Those who believe a crash is coming, cite stagnating construction starts for single and multi-family homes, mirroring patterns before the 2008 housing crash. They also point to the CRE sector, which has $900 billion of debt maturing this year, and the rate of foreclosures up 117% year-over-year in the first quarter. Those on the opposite side, point to continued demand for existing single-family homes in the large metropolitan and suburban areas, and continued investment in mixed-use developments and large multi-family buildings.

KKR acquires $2.1B MFR portfolio

Yesterday, KKR acquired a portfolio of 18 multifamily real estate properties from Quarterra for approximately $2.1 billion. The portfolio includes 5,200 units spread across California, Washington, Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, and New Jersey. Despite the global commercial property industry's significant slump since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, non-bank lenders are optimistic about recovery and potential returns as valuations improve.

Real estate hiring on the rise in Southern California

In May, real estate hiring surged in Southern California, with employment growing 39% faster than the seasonal norm. The combined property-related employment in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties increased by 5,600 jobs for the month, exceeding the pre-pandemic average of 4,040 jobs added. However, long-term trends remain sluggish, with only a 0.7% increase (5,900 jobs) over the past year, significantly below the average 12-month hiring pace of 14,300 jobs since the Great Recession.

Resources

Off Market Podcast: Lisa Carroll, Spec Ed Teacher Turned Top 1% Realtor in Tampa Bay

Lisa is a former special education teacher turned top 1% realtor. She has over 30 years of experience and has sold over $150M in real estate over her career. From beachside towns and retirement communities to downtown condos and master-planned communities, Lisa is an expert in the Tampa Bay area. Tune in here.

Off Market Podcast: David Curry, Lawnmower Turned #1 Real Estate Agent in Wisconsin

David is the number one top agent in Wisconsin and has been for the past several years. He’s sold nearly a billion dollars worth of real estate, with over nearly $150M in 2023 alone. He’s a member of the top half-percent of the top 1% of realtors nationwide and has represented many of Chicago's most iconic businessmen, businesswomen, estates, and universities. Tune in here.

Off Market Podcast: Bridget Potterton, The Only REDS and CDRE in CA

Bridget got her start in real estate with an internship at a commercial broker and a full-time role at an internet-based discount broker. After learning the back-office operations, she went out on her own and became a top 1% producer in San Diego County, and one of the top 1000 Realtors in the US. Bridget is the only real estate broker in California who has both the Real Estate Divorce Specialist and Certified Divorce Real Estate Expert designations. Tune in here.

The Closing Bell

As always, thanks for reading! If you need introductions to investors, wholesalers, cash buyers, financing (EMD, double closes, rehab…etc.), or title companies you know where to reach us.

• Austin & Max