The Off Market - April 24, 24 Edition

Welcome to Off Market by Goliath Data

The insider's guide to off-market properties.

If you’re new here and wondering why you’re receiving this, it’s probably because you interacted with one of our posts on Facebook or Bigger Pockets. If you’ve returned for another edition, welcome back! As a reminder, we break down the latest real estate data, give commentary (and hot takes) on trending topics, and provide resources to help you close more deals. Let’s dive in.

General Update

The NYC trip was a success! We met with a ton of top realtors, brokers, and bankers. We even got to go behind the scenes at the NYSE (see picture below)! We’re putting together the final details on a couple of deals, and expect those to be signed shortly. Last thing—we just finished recording the seventh episode of the Off Market podcast, and have another eight episodes set to record over the next week and a half—the flywheel is working!

On the Product side, we pushed the V1 of the Ohio and Indiana data sets live. We will be sprinting over the next 2-3 weeks to get all the remaining data sets incorporated into the platform. We hit a snag on the nationwide parcel data set so that project is currently on pause.

Last week we learned about two new datasets: utility liens/mechanics liens/solar liens and court dockets. We are beta-testing those in a few select markets and if the feedback is positive, we will be rolling it out to the other markets across the nation.

Real Estate Data

Highlights

• 30 YR Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 7.43% vs 7.41% last week (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Purchase: +4.97 % WoW, -9.90% YoY (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Refinance: +0.48% WoW, +11.32% YoY (source)

Real Estate Commentary - Courtesy of Andreas Mueller

The stock and bond markets are reacting strongly to ongoing inflation concerns, with stocks and long-dated treasuries falling around 4% and 4.2% respectively this month. The market is starting to acknowledge that inflation might not fall below 2% soon. We expect to see only one or two rate cuts in 2024, each between 0.25% and 0.50%, which aligns with current bond market expectations. Even though rates remain high, there is a silver lining: investors and first-time buyers can negotiate better prices. If they can handle a 7.5% mortgage rate for 12-18 months, they might be able to refinance at a lower rate later, securing property below market value.

Real Estate Commentary

Luxury Real Estate hits All-Time Highs

While the overall market is facing challenges like higher interest rates and low inventory, leading to a 4% drop in sales, the luxury sector is thriving, with sales increasing by more than 2%. Luxury real estate, often purchased with all cash remains least affected by high mortgage rates, which have surpassed 7%. This cash influx has not only boosted luxury home prices, which saw a nearly 9% increase and reached a median of $1.225M, but has also increased the supply in this segment, contrasting with the decline in the broader market.

CRE Auctions: Just A Trend or The Future?

The commercial real estate auction market is gaining traction as a method for quick and definite transactions amidst a market characterized by distress and rising interest rates. For example, the mixed-use property at 1001 Towne Avenue in the Fashion District sold for $13.5 million through an online commercial auction after drawing significant interest. Auctions are attractive to buyers because due diligence is completed upfront, and they must provide all-cash offers. Sellers receive a binding deal that closes quickly.

Residential Real Estate Forecasts

According to the latest data from Statista, the housing market is forecasted to recover in the next two years, with the number of sales reaching 5.6 million in 2025. Statista also predicts home prices will continue to rise in aggregate until 2025, though they note that some markets will appreciate at faster rates than others. If the Fed drops rates, demand will rise and prices will soar (assuming inventory frees up).

Partner Spotlight

If you’re in the market for single-family rentals, property management, or asset management services for a portfolio of 50+ doors, RoofStock is the ideal partner. They have helped facilitate over $6B in SFR transactions, they’ve helped manage over 25k SFR, and they’re growing like gangbusters. We’re big fans of the RoofStock team & platform, so if you’d like an intro let us know!

Resources

Off Market Podcast: Carrie McCormick, Top 1% Broker w/ Over $1.5B in Sales

This week we dropped the third episode of the Off Market podcast, featuring Neema Bardi, the youngest Real Estate Broker in CA History. Neema is a lifelong entrepreneur, who started out charging electric scooters and selling $8 coffees on the USC campus. When he learned about commercial real estate syndication, he was hooked! He graduated, became a realtor, and sold 20+ homes in his first three months. He then went out on his own, becoming one of the youngest brokers in history! Tune in Here.

The Top 723 Real Estate Terms

Real estate can be complicated, but it doesn’t have to be. We’ve broken down all of the major terms you may come across when reviewing contracts, speaking with agents, title companies, or bankers, or negotiating with homeowners. We explain what the terms mean, why they are important to understand, how they fit into the broader picture, and where relevant find examples. Check it out here.

Looking to Buy or Sell in Nashville?

If you’re an investor looking to purchase properties, or a homeowner looking to sell in Nashville, Andreas Mueller is your guy—we’d be happy to make an intro! Make sure to subscribe to his newsletter!

The Closing Bell

As always, thanks for reading! If you need introductions to investors, wholesalers, cash buyers, financing (EMD, double closes, rehab…etc.), or title companies you know where to reach us.

• Austin & Max