The Off Market - April 17, 24 Edition

Welcome to Off Market by Goliath Data

The insider's guide to off-market properties.

If you’re new here and wondering why you’re receiving this, it’s probably because you interacted with one of our posts on Facebook or Bigger Pockets. If you’ve returned for another edition, welcome back! As a reminder, we break down the latest real estate data, give commentary (and hot takes) on trending topics, and provide resources to help you close more deals. Let’s dive in.

General Update

The V1 version of our OCR integration (enabling us to process raw PDFs) just went live, as did code violations! We’re working on ingesting data from Ohio and Indiana, and those data sets should come online by the end of this week/early next. We’re still merging the data sets that will enable us to access every parcel, physical address, layout, and zoning classification in the US—updates to follow shortly.

On the GTM side, the trend continues: meetings, meetings and more meetings with title companies, hard money lenders, and real estate team leads. We got introduced to the former CEO of Keller Williams, and one of the Co-Founders of OpenDoor, we’re scheduling those calls over the next few weeks.

Last thing—we’re heading to NYC on Friday and will be there throughout next week, if you’re in the area and would like to meet up for a coffee let us know! Also, if there are people you think we should meet with while there, we’d love an intro!

Real Estate Data

Highlights

• 30 YR Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 7.41% vs 7.34% last week (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Purchase: -4.74 % WoW, -22.77% YoY (source)
• Mortgage Applications - Refinance: +9.88% WoW, +4.36% YoY (source)

Real Estate Commentary - Size Does Matter

Admittedly this is a bit of a tangent from what we normally cover, but we found it humorous. In real estate, size does matter, or at least it does to developers. Recently a developer submitted plans to build the tallest skyscraper in the US. Named the Legends Tower, it is supposed to be 1,907 feet tall, over a hundred feet taller than the next closest comp, Freedom Tower at One World Trade Center in New York City. It's set to be built in Oklahoma City of all places, and by the looks of things, the City Council is in agreement: “We believe that this development will be an iconic destination for the city, further driving the expansion and diversification of the growing economy, drawing in investment, new businesses, and jobs.” Sorry Texass, it appears not everything is truly bigger in the Lone Star state.

Real Estate Commentary

$1.8B SF Apartment at Risk of Default

Parkmerced, one of San Francisco’s biggest apartment complexes, is at risk of defaulting on its nearly $1.8 billion mortgage, which is due in December. In September, the occupancy rate was 83%, and even with that, its cash flow was well below the level needed to cover debt payments. They aren’t the first ones, numerous properties in SF have slid into foreclosure or been abandoned by owners in the wake of the pandemic. We suspect that this will continue as the credit markets deteriorate.

New Hampshire Home Prices Hit Record Highs

In March, New Hampshire's median sales price for single-family homes reached a record $500,000, a 16% increase from the previous year, signaling a growing housing affordability crisis. The state's affordability index, which measures the portion of the median household income needed to qualify for a median-priced home, fell to 59, indicating a significant affordability gap. The state is facing a severe shortage of housing inventory, with only 1,228 units available for sale and about 1.3 months of housing supply, which underpins the issue.

Looking To Sell? This Week Is The Best Week to Do So

According to Realtor.com, the best time for homeowners to sell their properties is during the week of April 14-20. This period coincides with peak buyer demand and comparatively less competition from other sellers, potentially leading to about a 1.1% higher home price in late April. Despite this optimal selling window, the report notes that the current housing market remains tough for both buyers and sellers due to rising mortgage rates and home prices.

Partner Spotlight

This newsletter quite literally would not have been possible without the incredible product the team over at Beehiiv has built. If you’re considering launching your own newsletter, they are the ideal partner for you to get started and scale. We literally cannot recommend them enough.

Resources

The Top 723 Real Estate Terms

Real estate can be complicated, but it doesn’t have to be. We’ve broken down all of the major terms you may come across when reviewing contracts, speaking with agents, title companies, or bankers, or negotiating with homeowners. We explain what the terms mean, why they are important to understand, how they fit into the broader picture, and where relevant find examples. Check it out here.

Off Market Podcast: Carrie McCormick, Top 1% Broker w/ Over $1.5B in Sales

Last week we dropped the second episode of the Off Market podcast, featuring Carrie McCormick, a top 1% broker with over $1.5B in career sales. Carrie began her career in the securities market with E-Trade during the dot com boom and later found her stride in the real estate space, first as a Sales Manager, and later as a National Sales Manager for one of Chicago's largest & most well-respected development companies. Tune in Here.

The Closing Bell

As always, thanks for reading! If you need introductions to investors, wholesalers, cash buyers, financing (EMD, double closes, rehab…etc.), or title companies you know where to reach us.

• Austin & Max