The Off Market - March 13, 24 Edition

Welcome to Off Market by Goliath Data

The insider's guide to off-market properties.

If you’re new here and wondering why you’re receiving this, it’s probably because you interacted with one of our posts on Facebook or Bigger Pockets. If you’ve returned for another edition, welcome back! As a reminder, we break down the latest real estate data, provide commentary (and hot takes) on trending topics and surface 50+ off-market leads from across the country. Let’s dive in.

General Update

We just returned from a successful trip to LA, where we met with a few of the top real estate agents and real estate brokerages on both the residential and commercial sides. The general sentiment from all involved was positive—most think that the worst of the chop is behind us. However, with very few new office buildings going up around the US, and even fewer large-scale retail locations slated to open we’re not out of the woods yet.

On the Goliath front, we officially welcomed two new enterprise customers to the platform and onboarded several other non-enterprise customers. We also published a handful of new guides that went viral on the RE groups (again). Funny enough, the guide summarized the key takeaways of a bunch of paid wholesaling courses, and apparently, the group admins (who happen to sell courses) didn’t like that so they kicked us out. We’ve linked that asset in the resources section below.

Real Estate Data

Highlights

• 30 YR Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 7.15% vs 7.22% last week
• Mortgage Applications - Purchase: -2.54% WoW, -16.70% YoY
• Mortgage Applications - Refinance: -2.12% WoW, +1.89% YoY
• Mkt Sale Price/SF Chg: -6.1% YoY (source)

Commentary

Mortgage rates are slowly, but surely coming down—that’s a good thing for residential real estate. On the commercial side, there are still challenges, especially when it comes to the impending debt maturities that are set to expire over the next two years. In 2024, over $206B in office loans will mature, and another $180B is slated to mature between 2025 and 2026 combined. With tenant delinquency rates at 7.4%, there is a non-zero possibility that the borrowers of these properties will default on their loans.

Real Estate Trends

Multi-Family Properties - In 2023, the amount of money invested in multifamily properties dropped below $100B for the first time since 2014. This decrease in investment was primarily due to sky-high interest rates. Institutional investors were initially dominant, but private buyers gained more market share in 2023. Loan-to-value ratios changed, with sellers offering debt assumptions to make deals more attractive. At the same time, property values declined, which led to higher yield requirements. Despite these changes, delinquency rates for multifamily properties remain low compared to other commercial real estate sectors, making it an attractive option for weary investors. For more details, check out this report on the state of multi-family.

Hospitality Sector - In 2023, trading volume in the hospitality sector decreased by over 50% YoY. Higher interest rates made it difficult for deals to be made, and there was a disagreement between sellers and buyers on prices (no surprise there). Despite the lower trading volume, luxury deals and deals in major markets are still happening. Throughout the remainder of 2024, hotel cap rates are forecasted to increase, but the margin between hotel and office cap rates is expected to decrease. For more details, check out this report on the state of hospitality.

Industrials Sector - The U.S. industrial market is facing challenges as 2024 begins. While the national vacancy rate is expected to stay around 7.3%, the next year could be the most difficult of the next five years. Net absorption, which measures the change in occupied space, has been positive but slowing down. This is partly due to low home sales, which led to a decrease in sales of furniture and building materials. That said, thanks to government subsidies there are plans for new electric vehicle, battery, and semiconductor plants in the works that will lead to more leasings in the future. For more details, check out this report on the state of industrials.

Real Estate Resources

Top Investor-Friendly Title Companies & Closing Agents - First-time wholesalers, listen up. If you're just getting started and have yet to find a preferred title company or closing agent, this list is for YOU. Having an investor-friendly title company is crucial if you plan to wholesale or pursue a double-close. I've done the hard work of finding them and classifying their regions of operations so you know exactly who to turn to. You can access the list here.

10 Steps To Close Your First Wholesaling Deal – over the past few weeks, we’ve been enrolling in and completing wholesaling courses from so-called “gurus”. We compiled all of the key insights/learnings in one doc and outlined the ten steps it takes to close a wholesaling deal, so you don't have to pay another penny. You can access it here.

Cold-Calling Scripts to Close More Deals - in the same guide linked above, we also pulled together a cold-calling script, again, based on all the “gurus”. But rather than use their high-pressure, sleazy tactics, we put our spin on it so you stay above board. You can access it here.

Ten Phrases and Questions to Ask When Buying Property - the final resource we included in the blog post referenced in the items above, is a list of the most powerful things to say and questions to ask when buying a property. These were selected specifically to improve your odds of closing a property. As Yoda says, “with great power, comes great responsibility” so use them sparingly. You can access them at the bottom of the post here.

Off-Market Opportunities - Last but not least, we have a list of fifty off-market properties. These leads are from across the country and range from probates and pre-foreclosures to tax delinquencies and trustee sales. You can access that list here.

The Closing Bell

As always, thanks for reading! If you need introductions to investors, wholesalers, cash buyers, or financing (EMD, double closes, rehab…etc.) you know where to reach us.

• Austin & Max

P.S. If you haven’t had a chance to leave us a google review, we’d surely appreciate it!